The €141 Lever: How Targeted Carbon Pricing Can Enable the Cement Transition
26 June 2026
How can carbon-intensive industries become climate-neutral? Mathematical models now validate what industry has long suspected: the path to climate neutrality is not merely a technical challenge, but a precisely calculable pricing problem.
The key question is: At what price does the transition become worthwhile? A recent study by Gunther Glenk, Rebecca Meier, and Stefan Reichelstein of the Mannheim Institute of Sustainable Energy Studies (MISES) examines how carbon pricing can encourage companies to invest in cleaner technologies.
The model developed in the study identifies the economically optimal pathway to decarbonization and demonstrates that the technological breakthrough in heavy industry depends on a precisely defined carbon price threshold.
€85: Incentives without investment certainty
The current status quo—an average carbon price of approximately €85 per ton (based on 2023 data)—leads to a strategic deadlock. At this price level, companies operate primarily in the realm of incremental improvements. Simply raising the price “somewhat” does not produce the desired results either: between €85 and €140, the industry finds itself in a “sensitive pricing corridor”.
This range is characterized by delayed investment decisions. The price signal is strong enough to create pressure, but too weak to provide the investment certainty required for large-scale facilities.
€141: Carbon capture becomes profitable
The strategic turning point—the system shift—occurs at exactly €141 per ton of CO₂. Beyond this threshold, the logic changes fundamentally: investments in carbon capture become economically viable. At a carbon price of €141, climate action is transformed from a cost driver into a risk management tool.
Put simply, it becomes cheaper to invest in technological transformation than to bear the opportunity costs of continuously rising carbon charges. This economic pressure to innovate helps secure long-term global competitiveness.
Stable price signals as the basis for investment decisions
The findings highlight the importance of a reliable policy signal. A predictable and moderate increase in the carbon price does not threaten the economic viability of key industries; rather, it creates the foundation for large-scale investment decisions. If policymakers provide the necessary planning certainty through stable carbon price signals, decarbonization can become a self-reinforcing process driven by sound industrial economics.
The study shows that the transition of the cement industry is both technically feasible and economically viable with a targeted carbon price of €141 per ton. This carbon price is the key to moving beyond incremental efficiency gains and achieving near-complete decarbonization (96%).